What election polling teaches us about ML-based email security
The margin of error is wider than your vendor is telling you. And the agentic inbox is about to make it catastrophically worse.
Two weeks before a major election, a respected polling organization publishes its latest numbers. Candidate A leads by three points. Margin of error: plus or minus four. The lead is smaller than the margin of error.
The headline says “Candidate A leads.” Millions of people form opinions based on a number that is statistically indistinguishable from a coin flip.
Now replace “election result” with “this email is malicious” and “polling organization” with your email security platform.
When your email security system flags a message, somewhere behind that decision is a probability score. 0.73. 0.81. 0.67. Those numbers look precise. They are not. Behind every score is a confidence interval determined by the quality of the training data and the quantity of examples the model has seen for...
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