The Next AI War Will Be Fought Over Access, Not Models.

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For the last three years, we’ve all been asking the same question. “Who will build the smartest AI?” Will it be OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, DeepSeek, xAI? etc.

It’s a fascinating race, but I think it’s distracting us from a much bigger story. The more I watch what’s happening around the world, the more convinced I become that the defining question of the next decade won’t be who builds intelligence.

Rather, it will be who gets access?.

We Keep Talking About AI, Yet Governments Keep Talking About Compute.

Over the past year, the headlines have seemed unrelated. The United States has continued tightening export controls on advanced AI chips and semiconductor technology. China has reportedly been considering restrictions on overseas access to some of its most advanced AI models.

On the surface, these appear to be separate policy decisions, and I mean, why wouldn’t they be? One is about chips and...

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