Tenant Resilience Index: Measuring Location Risk Before a Retail Unit Goes Dark
A strong covenant can hide a weak store.
Commercial property analysis often splits the problem in two. Credit teams look at the retailer. Leasing teams look at the unit. Yet the rent is earned at one specific location, with its own pedestrian routes, customer mix, anchors, competitors and daily rhythm.
The Tenant Resilience Index proposed here stress-tests that location.
The question is practical: how much deterioration in local demand can a unit absorb before its economics become difficult to sustain?
We aren't trying to build another bankruptcy prediction model. The framework spots micro-location vulnerabilities early — before a retailer starts asking for concessions, refuses a renewal or hands back the keys.
For landlords, that extra lead time matters.
1. A Strong Tenant Can Still Have a Weak Store
Take two shops occupied by the same national retailer.
Same balance sheet. Same covenant. Similar rent.
The first unit sits beside a...
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