Ivan vs the Machine: What Happened When I Put an AI Model Against a Sports Journalist

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A Monte Carlo simulation, a failed GPU experiment, and a weighting algorithm borrowed from game theory, tested over 38 World Cup matches against a sports journalist's gut instinct.

The Setup

For the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the Brazilian YouTube show Cultura Eclética and my platform RecomendeMe ran a recurring segment called Ivan vs the Machine. Every round, sports journalist Ivan Santos gave his prediction for each match. In parallel, a model I built predicted the same matches using nothing but data.

Thirty-eight matches later, from the group stage to the final in New Jersey, the score was:

  • The Machine: 28/38 correct (73.7%)
  • Ivan Santos: 19/38 correct (50.0%)

The Machine also called the champion correctly in the final: Spain over Argentina, 1–0 in extra time.

The final scoreline isn't really the story, though. What's more useful is the two architectures I had to build to get there, and why I...

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