Foresight is Orientation
Foresight is often mistaken for prediction. We imagine its purpose is to tell us what will happen next: which technology will win, which market will emerge, which threat will become serious, or which opportunity will matter most. But prediction and foresight are not the same thing.
The Future is Many Possibilities
Prediction asks, “What will happen?” Foresight asks a different set of questions: What is changing? What might follow? What assumptions are beginning to weaken? And is our current understanding of the world still good enough to guide our decisions?
Frank Diana recently wrote a great article where he explains this in detail.
Prediction seeks an answer. Orientation points us in a direction and preserves the ability to revise.
That distinction matters because the future rarely announces itself through one decisive fact. More often, it appears gradually through weak signals, anomalies, changing relationships, unexpected combinations, new behaviors, and shifts in...
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