Europe's chip ambitions won't break dependence on US cloud and software, says Forrester

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Brussels may spend billions on semiconductor fabs, but tech sovereignty remains firmly in American and Chinese hands

Europe can build more chip fabs, subsidize domestic manufacturing, and wrap it all in the language of sovereignty, but it still won't escape its dependence on American cloud providers and software anytime soon, according to Forrester.

In its first Global Sovereignty Forecast, the analyst concludes that the race for technological independence has already produced two clear winners: China and the United States. Everyone else, Europe included, is left figuring out which dependencies it can live with.

Forrester's Tech Sovereignty Index measures countries across areas such as AI investment, cloud infrastructure, semiconductors, software, datacenter capacity, and technical talent. Its forecast puts China and the US far ahead, with overall tech sovereignty scores of 82 percent and 79 percent respectively.

Europe's biggest economies, by comparison, barely move between now and 2030: Germany...

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