AI coding’s hidden cost curve: why token economics could outpace developer salaries by 2028
The promise of AI-assisted software development has been framed largely in terms of productivity gains—faster coding cycles, reduced manual effort, and the ability to scale engineering output with fewer resources. But a new prediction from Gartner suggests a less discussed reality is quickly taking shape: the economics of AI coding may soon rival, and even exceed, the cost of human developers themselves.
According to the firm, by 2028, the cost of using AI coding tools—driven primarily by token consumption in large language models (LLMs)—is expected to surpass the average salary of a developer. This shift signals a fundamental recalibration in how enterprises evaluate the return on investment from generative AI in software engineering.
At the centre of this transformation is a deceptively simple concept: tokens. These units of data, processed by AI models for every prompt, response, and iteration, are fast becoming the new currency of software development. As organisations...
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