Your Marketing Models Can Predict Everything Except What Happens When You Act
I am responsible for marketing analytics at a Series C fintech, and here is a rather embarrassing admission: our industry tends to produce models which are very good at answering questions nobody asked, while being structurally unable to address the single question everyone asks.
This question is something along the lines of "what happens if we do X?", where X stands for several possible actions: "What happens if we offer this segment a discount?", "What happens if we reduce retargeting budget by 30%?" or "What happens if we add one more email touch?"
Instead, our models, including lifetime value predictions, return on ad spend forecasts, and even multi-touch attribution, answer a completely different question: "What happened to people who resembled this?" It is a prediction. We need an intervention. They are not the same, and the gap between them leads to millions of marketing budgets being wasted quietly every year.
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