Why Foresight Fails, Pt 1
Organizations rarely lose contact with reality in one dramatic moment. The separation usually begins while the institution is still functioning, customers are still buying, reports are still being produced, and leaders still appear to be in control.
A weak signal is explained away. An uncomfortable pattern is treated as temporary. A trusted assumption survives one more planning cycle. Each decision may appear reasonable in isolation, yet together they allow a widening distance to form between the organization’s internal picture and the conditions outside it.
That distance is drift.
Drift is especially dangerous during transitions because the old system does not disappear when the new one begins to emerge. Established products may still sell. Familiar expertise may still produce results. Institutional authority may remain intact. The evidence of change appears beside evidence of continuity, giving leaders plausible reasons to delay revising their interpretation.
Foresight often fails in this interval not because...
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