Why AI Trading Agents Are Hard to Trust
Bloomberg went through roughly two million Polymarket addresses active since early 2025. More than 100,000 of them booked losses over $1,000. Retail lost around $131 million in total, while the top 1% of accounts — mostly bots — took more than 80% of the profits.
Here's the part almost nobody quotes. The human traders picked the correct outcome more often than the bots did.
Joshua Della Vedova, the University of San Diego professor involved in the analysis, put it plainly: the bots weren't better forecasters. They were better at getting in. They entered early at good prices while the humans showed up late and paid up.
Being right isn't the edge. Acting on being right, at a price that still leaves room, is the edge.
Two things are now both called "a bot"
I keep coming back to that finding because of what the last year has done to the...
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