Tracking Seven Metrics That Called Bitcoin's $66K Bottom in Real Time
On April 1, I flagged seven on-chain signals converging on one conclusion: Bitcoin was bottoming at $66,800. The Fear and Greed Index had been stuck at 11 — deep in "Extreme Fear" — for 46 straight days, the longest streak since FTX collapsed in November 2022.
Thirty days later, Bitcoin traded at $78,321.
I did not predict the timing of the rally and I have no idea where Bitcoin goes next. What I tracked was pain — seven independent metrics that each measure a different dimension of market stress, and I waited until enough of them crossed their historical thresholds at the same time.
Most Bottom Calls Fail Because They Rely on One Number
Crypto Twitter runs on single-metric conviction. Someone pulls up MVRV — Market Value to Realized Value, a ratio that compares Bitcoin's market price to the average price at which every coin last moved on-chain — and...
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