The Vices of Foresight: How Human Weaknesses Distort the Future
In the summer of 1846, a group of American emigrants heading west toward California faced a leadership problem familiar to every modern executive: they were behind schedule.The Donner-Reed Party had left later than was advisable for a journey of roughly 2,500 miles. The route west was already difficult, the calendar mattered, and winter waited somewhere beyond the Sierra Nevada. At Fort Bridger, the emigrants faced a choice. They could remain on the established California Trail or take a newer route promoted by Lansford Hastings. The Hastings Cutoff promised a more direct path toward California. Mountain man James Clyman, who had experience with the country, had warned James Reed to stay on the established trail. The party chose the cutoff.
The promise was seductive because it appeared to solve their most urgent problem. They had lost time. The cutoff promised to save time.
Instead, the emigrants were forced to hack a...
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