The Calibration Loop: How to Measure Incrementality You Can Defend

Most marketing teams measure the same channel several ways and get several different answers. Last-click attribution says one thing, the platform dashboard says another, the media mix model says a third.

At Stella, we reconcile them with something we call the Calibration Loop. Incrementality experiments are the strongest causal anchor we have, so we use them to inform a media mix model that fills in the periods and spend levels the experiments never directly see, and we keep attribution and post-purchase surveys running as coverage in between. We are not trying to pick the one true method. We are trying to let the strongest evidence keep the weaker evidence honest.

Why the numbers disagree.

They rest on different assumptions, and most of what runs your budget is observational. Attribution and platform dashboards read patterns in the data as it comes. Targeting and delivery make the people who saw your ad...

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