TECH NEWS

Over $600 Million in Polymarket Election Trades Took Place After Races Ended

Prediction market boosters often tout the platforms as barometers of public opinion, or even “truth machines” offering a clearer picture of where things are headed than polling or other data. In 2024, for example, Kalshi beat many pollsters in forecasting the outcome of the US presidential race. But their trading activity can also tell more perplexing stories.

Two global election markets on Polymarket’s offshore platform, for instance, generated over $600 million in trading volume, far more than most political markets typically attract. Most of the activity took place buying and selling contracts tied to long-shot candidates who ultimately did not win.

This summer, Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party cruised to victory in federal elections, winning 438 parliamentary seats and paving the way for him to serve another five-year term. The closest competitor won 13 seats. On prediction markets, trading volume—the total value of contracts bought and sold—typically...

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How to Build Reliable LLM Classifiers With Confidence Thresholds

TL;DR: Routing, triage, moderation and approval prompts pick an answer from a list you wrote in advance. That makes them classifiers, but they usually skip what makes a classifier safe to run: label definitions the model actually follows, a labelled test set, a probability that means something, and a

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Five Years, One Developer, and a Dream of Building My Own Business

Hi All, I worked for years in Corporate America as a 9 to 5 cubicle monkey. I saw how much revenue a lot of these big enterprises were racking in. And I thought to myself after years of growing their products, why not just build one myself? It doesn’t

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I Searched 6,000 Leaked Claude Chats. What I Found Was Worse Than Passwords

I set out to find leaked secrets in six thousand exposed Claude conversations. Instead I found Andrew, a man whose thirty-year belief in a “redacted” terminal illness had been reinforced, day after day, by AI models that never once pushed back. I. A Reddit Post Scrolling Reddit, I found a

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The Paradox of Choice in the Age of AI: Why More Options Aren't Always Bad

We have more options than ever, and increasingly sophisticated tools to help us choose. The psychology of decision-making suggests that the real problem might not be having too many options at all. Last week, I wanted to watch something. I was on Netflix, scrolled through the recommendations, checked a few

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How to Build Reliable LLM Classifiers With Confidence Thresholds

Five Years, One Developer, and a Dream of Building My Own Business

I Searched 6,000 Leaked Claude Chats. What I Found Was Worse Than Passwords

The Paradox of Choice in the Age of AI: Why More Options Aren't Always Bad