Kalshi builds a forward curve for computing power as exchanges race to turn GPUs into a tradable commodity
TL;DR
Kalshi built a forward curve for GPU compute costs using prediction market contracts, joining CME and ICE in financialising AI infrastructure.
Kalshi, the prediction markets exchange, has built a forward curve that tracks the future price of computing power, joining a growing list of exchanges and index operators trying to turn GPU rental costs into a standardised financial instrument. The tool uses weekly and monthly event contracts related to compute prices, extending up to a year into the future. An algorithm then stitches those contracts into a single curve that can serve as a reference for futures, options, and other derivatives.
“We are using prediction markets to build the forward curve, which will provide the market a view of what compute costs will be in the future for different grades and time-frames of GPUs,” Udesh Jha, Kalshi’s chief risk officer, told Bloomberg.Forward curves are a staple...
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