Is It a Super El Niño Year? It Could Turn the World’s Weather Upside Down
Jun 11, 2026 3:24 PM
From a wet winter in the Southwest to fewer Atlantic hurricanes, this is what to expect as a potential super El Niño takes shape.
Photograph: NOAA Satellites
The wait is finally over: El Niño has officially begun.
On Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared the semi-annual climate phenomenon has arrived. Congratulations if you took the pre-July 1 prediction on Kalshi.
Prediction markets aren’t the only places with a lot riding on El Niño. The phenomenon—characterized by hotter-than-normal waters in the eastern tropical Pacific—has a huge impact on weather in nearly every corner of the globe. And with this year’s iteration projected to be among the strongest ever recorded, the impacts are likely to be particularly acute.
There are a handful of ways to measure El Niño, but NOAA’s threshold hinges on temperatures being 1F (0.5C) above average for a three-month period in a...
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