Gartner Predicts AI Coding Costs Will Surpass Average Developer’s Salary by 2028 as Token Consumption Surges
By 2028, AI coding costs will overtake the average developer’s salary due to rising large language model (LLM) token consumption and the shift to consumption-based licensing models, according to Gartner, Inc., a business and technology insights company.
AI tokens are the units of data processed by generative AI models. Token consumption directly impacts the cost of AI coding tools, particularly under consumption-based pricing structures.
“Organizations are rapidly moving from experimentation to scaled deployment of AI coding agents, but many are underestimating the financial impact of rising token consumption,” said Nitish Tyagi, Sr. Principal Analyst at Gartner. “Token discipline will not emerge through developer choice alone, as developers tend to optimize for speed and convenience over cost efficiency. Without a governed engineering operating model, costs can escalate faster than the productivity gains these tools are designed to deliver.”
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