Forecasters predict below-average hurricane season, advise against complacency

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Haiyan Jiang, a meteorologist at Florida International University, said there was a high chance of a strong El Niño that could boost water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico.

“We probably won’t have as many number of storms as previous years. However, some storms get lucky,” she said. “We see outliers all the time, especially with hurricanes. So I believe Floridians, we need to get prepared.”

2026 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names

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The NWS outlook was for overall seasonal activity and did not include predictions for when or where hurricanes might make landfall, as that is determined by short-lived weather patterns, said the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees the National Weather Service. NOAA said there was a 55 percent chance of a below-normal season, 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.

Forecasters at Colorado State University similarly predicted a below-average...

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