A $299 Million Sports Week: The Other Side
This week’s Prediction Frontier letter turns to sports. They accounted for $299.3 million, more than half of Polymarket’s on-chain trading, from September 14–20. Esports added another $77.4 million.
That much trading needs someone willing to take the other side of each order. Flutter, FanDuel’s parent, sees a business there: the company expects about $50 million in market-making revenue this year from supplying liquidity to combination markets across prediction platforms.
Kalshi’s record week shows why it pays to look closely at the numbers behind that business. DeFi Rate counted $15.27 billion in displayed contract volume, but $3.53 billion when trades were valued at their execution prices.
Prediction Frontier’s first weekly edition sports roundup examined a separate venue, Polymarket, and asked a related question: what sizes, prices and trading hours sit behind its sports volume?
The NFL has small typical trades and large money flows.
The NFL traded $59.7 million on Polymarket...
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